Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
2%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $224KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -15.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 15.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-15.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
33
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 11.5pp, from 28% to 17%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
26%
3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
28%
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
17%
3 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
21%
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
25%
3 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
12%
4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 15.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 11.5% | -15.0pp | $35K | active |
| December 31 | 1.7% | — | $42K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC