Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
23%
Limited history-8.5pp
24h activity $3KCloses 15 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome, a +10.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
31%
24h Change
+10.2pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 8.9pp, from 26% to 17%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC.
22%
30 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
22%
30 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
22%
30 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
22%
30 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
17%
1 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
31%
4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 10.2pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $8K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | 23.0% | -8.5pp | $9K | active |
| Atlanta Dream | 35.0% | +7.5pp | $11K | active |
| New York Liberty | 12.3% | -5.5pp | $11K | active |
| Golden State Valkyries | 31.1% | +10.2pp | $8K | active |
| Minnesota Lynx | 0.0% | -21.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Indiana Fever | 0.0% | -11.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Portland Fire | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dallas Wings | 0.0% | -3.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Washington Mystics | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Connecticut Sun | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Phoenix Mercury | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Chicago Sky | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Toronto Tempo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Seattle Storm | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 101.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the WNBA for the 2026 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to named as the champion of WNBA for the 2026 season per the rules of WNBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the WNBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC