Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
7%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $36KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 16% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
16%Probability is barely changed (up 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
16%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 16% to 16%, gradually rather than in one jump.
16%
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
16%
7 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC
16%
7 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
16%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
14%
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
16%
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 6.5% | +0.5pp | $225K | active |
| December 31 | 15.5% | +1.0pp | $308K | active |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 22 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC