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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+77.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
9
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 0.7pp, from 99% to 100%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC.
99%
4 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 0.1% | -58.5pp | $258K | resolved |
| Augusto Cury | 100.0% | +77.0pp | $231K | resolved |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.1% | -18.9pp | $250K | resolved |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $222K | resolved |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.1% | — | $223K | resolved |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.1% | — | $221K | resolved |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $223K | resolved |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | — | $226K | resolved |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $220K | resolved |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $220K | resolved |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $219K | resolved |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $223K | resolved |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1% | — | $223K | resolved |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1% | — | $220K | resolved |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $221K | resolved |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $221K | resolved |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1% | — | $220K | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)