Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
1%
Limited history
24h activity $7KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.5pp from 4% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
4%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.3% | -0.1pp | $1.1M | active |
| October 31 | 1.1% | — | $16K | active |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC