Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
50%
Limited history+0.8pp
24h activity $30KCloses 28 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 30% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
30%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
30%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 4.0pp, from 31% to 27%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
31%
12 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
31%
12 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
31%
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
31%
13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
27%
14 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
30%
17 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 29.5% | -1.0pp | $416K | active |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 50.0% | +0.8pp | $172K | active |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.8% | +0.3pp | $184K | active |
| Naftali Bennett | 13.5% | — | $125K | active |
| Ofer Winter | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $224K | active |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.3% | — | $207K | active |
| Yair Golan | 0.1% | — | $202K | active |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.1% | — | $211K | active |
| Israel Katz | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $111K | active |
| Yariv Levin | 0.1% | — | $149K | active |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.1% | — | $201K | active |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $149K | active |
| Amir Ohana | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $213K | active |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1% | — | $111K | active |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | — | $106K | active |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1% | — | $88K | active |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.1% | — | $267K | active |
| Nir Barkat | 0.1% | — | $235K | active |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1% | — | $159K | active |
Probability sum: 97.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC