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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 15% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
15%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
15%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.0pp, from 16% to 15%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
16%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
16%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
16%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
16%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
15%
2 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC