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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 13 | 100.0% | +64.0pp | $29K | awaiting resolution |
| November 30 | 100.0% | +2.4pp | $22K | awaiting resolution |
| October 15 | 100.0% | +32.5pp | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| October 31 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| October 23 | 100.0% | +16.4pp | $18K | awaiting resolution |
| October 14 | 100.0% | +39.0pp | $16K | awaiting resolution |
| October 16 | 100.0% | +30.9pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| October 12 | 0.0% | -3.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -24.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 10 | 0.0% | -2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 5 | 0.0% | -3.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 9 | 0.0% | -3.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 2 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.