Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $53KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 21% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
21%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
21%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 21% to 21%, gradually rather than in one jump.
21%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
21%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
21%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
21%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
21%
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
21%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0.7% | -0.1pp | $412K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 1.0% | -0.05pp | $360K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 0.5% | — | $247K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | — | $409K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.8% | -0.2pp | $398K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $1.7M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | — | $224K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8% | -0.1pp | $381K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.6% | — | $537K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| JD Vance | 20.6% | -0.1pp | $492K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| James Talarico | 1.1% | — | $644K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 8.9% | — | $267K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1% | — | $721K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $986K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.3% | — | $208K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.6% | — | $218K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.2% | — | $383K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.3% | — | $242K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | — | $423K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | $342K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.4% | — | $347K | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.6% | — | $453K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.4% | -0.05pp | $190K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.8% | — | $305K | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | — | $194K | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.5% | — | $801K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | — | $613K | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.1% | — | $702K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 89.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC