Politics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Current implied probability

87%

Market data currentMeaningful move+2.0pp (24h)

Probability is barely changed (up 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.

Signal: High

Current

87%

24h Change

+2.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 86.5%
No implied probability: 13.5%
Liquidity: $31K
24h activity: $11K
Lifetime volume: $300K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Fernando Haddad	0.1%	-0.1pp	$90K	active
Flávio Bolsonaro	86.5%	+2.0pp	$31K	active
Michelle Bolsonaro	0.3%	—	$66K	active
Aldo Rebelo	0.1%	—	$77K	active
Tarcisio de Freitas	0.1%	—	$54K	active
Eduardo Bolsonaro	0.1%	—	$67K	active
Romeu Zema	0.3%	+0.1pp	$58K	active
Renan Santos	4.6%	-1.1pp	$57K	active
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	7.3%	+0.1pp	$49K	active
Geraldo Alckmin	0.1%	—	$65K	active
Ronaldo Caiado	0.5%	-0.1pp	$42K	active
Eduardo Leite	0.1%	—	$75K	active
Camilo Santana	0.3%	-0.1pp	$53K	active
Jair Bolsonaro	0.1%	—	$46K	active
Ratinho Júnior	0.1%	—	$65K	active
Tereza Cristina	0.1%	—	$17K	active
Helder Barbalho	0.1%	—	$29K	active

Probability sum: 101.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC