Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Spain snap election called in 2026?
59%
Limited history+19.0pp
24h activity $17KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 50% probability for this outcome, a 0.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
50%Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
50%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. No 24h direction is visible. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h activity is $0. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 59.0% | +19.0pp | $34K | active |
| October 31 | 54.0% | — | $5K | active |
| November 30 | 58.5% | — | $4K | active |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? (copy) | 50.0% | 0.0pp | $0 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC