Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
10%
Limited history-0.5pp
24h activity $9KCloses 1 Jul 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.9pp from 4% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
3%
28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2.9% | +0.1pp | $803K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 10.0% | -0.5pp | $143K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC