Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
1%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $33KCloses 1 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 7% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
7%Probability is barely changed (up 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
7%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | +1.0pp | $809K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $92K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 12.5% | — | $110K | active |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
13%