Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Spain snap election called in 2026?
59%
Limited history+19.0pp
24h activity $17KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 54% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
54%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
54%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
11
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 21.0pp, from 42% to 63%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
50%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
32%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
34%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
35%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
63%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
54%
3 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 59.0% | +19.0pp | $34K | active |
| October 31 | 54.0% | — | $5K | active |
| November 30 | 58.5% | — | $4K | active |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? (copy) | 50.0% | 0.0pp | $0 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC