EAEventAlpha
Politics

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-0.3pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $46K and 24h volume is $63K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
99.8%
Liquidity
$46K
Market Activity
$464K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:38 UTC

What this market asks

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Current market read

This market is focused on whether Ilie Bolojan will cease to be Prime Minister of Romania at any point before June 30, 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if he resigns or is removed before this date, with immediate resolution upon such announcements. If he remains in office until the specified date, it will resolve to 'No'.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability at 0.15%
  • Recent 24-hour movement of -0.25%
  • Political context surrounding Ilie Bolojan's leadership

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution relies on official announcements from Ilie Bolojan or the Romanian government.
  • Market activity is specific to this outcome and does not reflect the entire event.
  • No resolution source is explicitly provided.

Resolution summary

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister for any period between now and June 30, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal will lead to immediate resolution to 'Yes'. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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