Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
90%
Limited history+15.3pp
24h activity $966Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 45% probability for this outcome, a +4.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
45%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
45%
24h Change
+4.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
86
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 41.5pp, from 27% to 69%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
26%
1 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
27%
1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
27%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
69%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
55%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
45%
5 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $21K and 24h activity is $441. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 90.0% | +15.3pp | $21K | active |
| October 31 | 45.0% | +4.0pp | $21K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC