Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
8%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $11KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 24% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
24%Recent probability movement (down 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
24%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 5.0pp, from 19% to 24%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
20%
7 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
20%
7 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
20%
7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
20%
7 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
24%
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
24%
11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1,500 | 8.0% | -0.05pp | $176K | active |
| ↓ 2,000 | 24.0% | -1.5pp | $44K | active |
| ↑ 3,000 | 44.5% | +1.0pp | $72K | active |
| ↑ 4,000 | 10.5% | +1.5pp | $86K | active |
| ↓ 1,750 | 12.5% | — | $95K | active |
| ↓ 2,250 | 45.5% | -5.0pp | $44K | active |
| ↑ 10,000 | 0.8% | — | $118K | active |
| ↑ 3,500 | 20.5% | +1.0pp | $72K | active |
| ↑ 5,000 | 3.9% | — | $99K | active |
| ↑ 6,500 | 2.1% | +0.3pp | $77K | active |
| ↑ 8,000 | 1.1% | — | $90K | active |
| ↑ 6,000 | 2.4% | -0.1pp | $89K | active |
| ↑ 7,000 | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $86K | active |
| ↓ 500 | 1.3% | — | $54K | active |
| ↓ 1,250 | 5.5% | — | $83K | active |
| ↓ 1,000 | 4.5% | — | $105K | active |
| ↓ 700 | 2.1% | — | $78K | active |
| ↑ 4,500 | 4.5% | — | $95K | active |
| ↓ 800 | 2.7% | — | $107K | active |
| ↑ 5,500 | 3.0% | — | $94K | active |
| ↑ 7,500 | 1.1% | — | $90K | active |
| ↓ 600 | 1.4% | — | $75K | active |
| ↓ 2,500 | 100.0% | +15.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 2,000 | 100.0% | +8.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 2,250 | 100.0% | +42.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 2,000 | 100.0% | +13.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 2,750 | 100.0% | +13.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 2,500 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 1,750 | 100.0% | +9.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 1,750 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC