Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?
6%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $159KCloses 31 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 19% probability for this outcome, a +1.9pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
19%Probability is barely changed (up 1.9pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
19%
24h Change
+1.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 4.0pp, from 16% to 20%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC.
16%
30 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
17%
30 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
17%
30 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
16%
30 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
20%
4 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
19%
4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.9pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 6.5% | +2.5pp | $110K | active |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.0% | +5.5pp | $82K | active |
| San Diego Padres | 5.3% | -4.2pp | $91K | active |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 14.6% | +4.5pp | $92K | active |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 18.9% | +1.9pp | $98K | active |
| Cleveland Guardians | 4.6% | -1.8pp | $86K | active |
| Atlanta Braves | 4.3% | -4.3pp | $87K | active |
| New York Yankees | 9.5% | -6.0pp | $73K | active |
| Washington Nationals | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Miami Marlins | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | -4.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | -2.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| New York Mets | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Athletics | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC