Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
21%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $712Closes 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 14% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
14%Probability is barely changed (up 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
14%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.5pp, from 12% to 14%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
10%
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
10%
12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
11%
12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
11%
12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
14%
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
14%
16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 13.5% | +2.0pp | $99K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 20.5% | +0.5pp | $62K | active |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC