Politics

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentHigh activity-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 8.1%
No implied probability: 92.0%
Liquidity: $325K
24h activity: $52K
Lifetime volume: $13.3M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	18.4%	+5.7pp	$404K	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Kamala Harris	8.1%	-0.1pp	$325K	active
Hunter Biden	0.5%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Jon Ossoff	15.8%	-0.5pp	$296K	active
MrBeast	0.1%	—	$2.6M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	-0.1pp	$2.6M	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19.1%	+0.1pp	$347K	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.5%	+0.05pp	$441K	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$1.5M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Josh Shapiro	6.0%	+0.4pp	$289K	active
Andy Beshear	2.5%	—	$556K	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	-0.1pp	$374K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.9%	-0.2pp	$832K	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
James Talarico	2.4%	—	$241K	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Ro Khanna	1.4%	-0.2pp	$372K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.5M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	-0.05pp	$191K	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$896K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.6%	-0.05pp	$652K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Mark Kelly	3.3%	+0.1pp	$345K	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	-0.05pp	$1.8M	active
Barack Obama	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Wes Moore	1.8%	+0.1pp	$351K	active
Mark Cuban	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	-0.1pp	$300K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	-0.1pp	$786K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	—	$930K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$445K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active

Probability sum: 95.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC