Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
15%
Limited history
24h activity $550Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 60% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
60%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
60%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 4.0pp, from 56% to 60%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC.
57%
6 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC
57%
6 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
57%
6 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
57%
6 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
60%
9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
60%
10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 14.5% | — | $31K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 59.5% | — | $3K | active |
| January 31, 2027 | 15.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 45.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| February 28, 2027 | 23.5% | — | $7K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC