Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
78%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 2.2pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-2.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 77.5% | +2.0pp | $92K | active |
| Alphabet | 9.0% | -1.5pp | $138K | active |
| Amazon | 0.1% | — | $176K | active |
| Apple | 11.8% | -2.2pp | $162K | active |
| SpaceX | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $133K | active |
| Tesla | 0.1% | — | $259K | active |
| Microsoft | 0.6% | +0.1pp | $182K | active |
| Saudi Aramco | 0.3% | — | $149K | active |
Probability sum: 100.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
78%
9%
0%
1%
0%
1%