Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 38% probability for this outcome, a -17.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
38%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
38%
24h Change
-17.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 17.0pp, from 39% to 56%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC.
57%
1 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
57%
1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
57%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
57%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
56%
5 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
38%
5 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 17.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $798 and 24h activity is $134. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38.0% | -17.0pp | $798 | active |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC