Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
63%
Limited history+17.2pp
24h activity $7KCloses 1 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 37% probability for this outcome, a -17.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
37%Probability moved down 17.6pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
37%
24h Change
-17.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 24.0pp, from 69% to 45%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
62%
12 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
62%
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
62%
12 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC
62%
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
45%
13 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
37%
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 17.6pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 36.9% | -17.6pp | $129K | active |
| Cleveland Guardians | 62.6% | +17.2pp | $102K | active |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Houston Astros | 0.0% | -4.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | -14.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Athletics | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | -1.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| New York Yankees | 0.0% | -9.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | -5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC