Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?
24%
Limited history+6.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 31 Dec 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 36% probability for this outcome, a +9.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
36%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
36%
24h Change
+9.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 38.5pp, from 61% to 22%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC.
76%
14 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
76%
14 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
76%
14 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
76%
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
22%
17 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
36%
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | 23.7% | +6.5pp | $19K | active |
| UDMR | 0.6% | +0.4pp | $12K | active |
| PNL | 24.1% | -18.1pp | $16K | active |
| Independent/Technocrat | 35.5% | +9.0pp | $2K | active |
| AUR | 2.1% | +1.3pp | $15K | active |
| USR | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
Probability sum: 86.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent/Technocrat”. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2027, 00:00 UTC