Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
8%
Limited history-10.3pp
24h activity $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 17% probability for this outcome, a +11.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
17%Recent probability movement (up 11.2pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
17%
24h Change
+11.2pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
37
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 24.5pp, from 50% to 25%, between 13:51 and 14:00 UTC.
50%
2 Oct 2026, 13:51 UTC
25%
2 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
11%
2 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
6%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
17%
4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 11.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Badea | 8.3% | -10.3pp | $40K | active |
| Luca Niculescu | 16.9% | +11.2pp | $14K | active |
| Sorin Grindeanu | 20.9% | +3.4pp | $46K | active |
| Ilie Bolojan | 4.6% | -0.4pp | $23K | active |
| Siegfried Mureșan | 0.4% | +0.1pp | $30K | active |
| Alexandru Rogobete | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $27K | active |
| Alexandru Nazare | 33.9% | -1.1pp | $55K | active |
| Ionuț Dumitru | 1.1% | +0.9pp | $24K | active |
| Eugen Tomac | 8.6% | +0.5pp | $39K | active |
| Calin Georgescu | 0.4% | +0.1pp | $25K | active |
| Radu Burnete | 3.0% | -1.4pp | $20K | active |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 1.4% | -0.9pp | $25K | active |
| Delia Velculescu | 0.7% | -0.6pp | $21K | active |
| Șerban Matei | 0.9% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Dan Motreanu | 0.7% | -4.3pp | $17K | active |
| George Simion | 0.6% | -0.6pp | $24K | active |
| Hunor Kelemen | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $29K | active |
| Mugur Isărescu | 0.1% | — | $34K | active |
| Anca Dragu | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| Vasile Dîncu | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Lucian Isar | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| Dragoș Pîslaru | 0.3% | — | $25K | active |
| Traian Basescu | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $33K | active |
| Victor Ponta | 0.5% | -0.5pp | $23K | active |
| Lucian Croitoru | 0.3% | -1.1pp | $23K | active |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 0.1% | — | $34K | active |
| Elena Lasconi | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Sebastian Burduja | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Adrian Veștea | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Dominic Fritz | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Mircea Geoană | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
| Alexandru Rafila | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
| Dacian Cioloș | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 0.1% | — | $32K | active |
| Emil Boc | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Ciprian Ciucu | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Cătălin Drulă | 0.1% | — | $37K | active |
| Raluca Turcan | 0.1% | — | $18K | active |
Probability sum: 106.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC