Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
3%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $953Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 75% probability for this outcome, a +22.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
75%Recent probability movement (up 22.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
75%
24h Change
+22.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 7.5pp, from 73% to 65%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC.
70%
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
73%
19 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
65%
19 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
66%
19 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
70%
19 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
75%
23 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 22.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5B | 2.6% | +0.1pp | $21K | active |
| $50M | 75.0% | +22.5pp | $10K | active |
| $3B | 3.0% | +1.8pp | $17K | active |
| $200M | 46.0% | +0.5pp | $22K | active |
| $1B | 11.0% | — | $12K | active |
| $800M | 14.0% | — | $26K | active |
| $10B | 0.8% | — | $14K | active |
| $2B | 2.0% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| $7B | 2.6% | — | $24K | active |
| $400M | 24.0% | — | $15K | active |
| $100M | 58.5% | +0.5pp | $1K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC