Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
30%
Limited history+13.0pp
24h activity $4KCloses 1 Feb 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 25% probability for this outcome, a +10.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
25%Probability moved up 10.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
25%
24h Change
+10.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 15% to 25%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
15%
11 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC
15%
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
15%
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
15%
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
25%
14 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
25%
15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 10.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 24.5% | +10.0pp | $12K | active |
| January 31, 2027 | 29.5% | +13.0pp | $8K | active |
| February 28, 2027 | 32.5% | +9.0pp | $7K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 62.5% | +3.0pp | $4K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 44.0% | -0.5pp | $8K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC