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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+1.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 65.0% | +26.0pp | $3K | active |
| 5.2% | 25.6% | -0.8pp | $10K | active |
| 5.5% | 13.9% | +10.3pp | $3K | active |
| 6.0% | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $2K | active |
| 5.7% | 6.6% | +3.1pp | $4K | active |
| 4.3% | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| 4.8% | 100.0% | +7.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| 4.6% | 100.0% | +4.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| 4.5% | 100.0% | +11.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| 4.4% | 100.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.