Politics
LowMarket data current
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
14%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
41%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
85
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
14%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOS | 1.5% | — | $9K | active |
| AUR | 14.2% | — | $1K | active |
| UDMR | 34.5% | — | $141 | active |
| USR | 36.5% | — | $110 | active |
| PNL | 40.5% | +0.5pp | $390 | active |
| PSD | 51.6% | — | $226 | active |
Current implied probability
41%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $390 and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
52%
36%
2%
35%
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.