Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026?
2%
Limited history-13.2pp
24h activity $4KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -33.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 33.7pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-33.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 73.6pp from 76% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
76%
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
4%
15 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
3%
15 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 33.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 2.6% | -33.7pp | $12K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 2.3% | -13.2pp | $2K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by StandX will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://x.com/StandX_Official. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC