Politics

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 35% probability for this outcome, a +0.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

35%

Market data currentHigh activity+0.2pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.2pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

35%

24h Change

+0.2pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 34.6%
No implied probability: 65.3%
Liquidity: $395K
24h activity: $23K
Lifetime volume: $2.4M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 14 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
David Lisnard	7.3%	-1.3pp	$175K	active
Éric Zemmour	0.8%	—	$239K	active
François Hollande	4.8%	+0.8pp	$130K	active
Marine Le Pen	34.6%	+0.2pp	$395K	active
Bruno Retailleau	1.8%	+0.1pp	$259K	active
Sébastien Lecornu	0.7%	-0.05pp	$189K	active
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	11.5%	—	$250K	active
Sarah Knafo	1.1%	+0.05pp	$241K	active
Dominique de Villepin	1.1%	-0.3pp	$188K	active
Édouard Philippe	26.5%	-1.0pp	$211K	active
Jean Castex	0.1%	—	$133K	active
Jordan Bardella	2.0%	—	$155K	active
Xavier Bertrand	0.1%	—	$234K	active
François Ruffin	0.1%	—	$622K	active
Marine Tondelier	0.1%	—	$596K	active
Karim Bouamrane	0.1%	—	$632K	active
Raphaël Glucksmann	1.4%	-0.2pp	$203K	active
Gabriel Attal	2.3%	-0.1pp	$207K	active
Olivier Faure	0.1%	—	$122K	active
François Baroin	0.1%	—	$118K	active
Laurent Wauquiez	0.1%	—	$574K	active
Clémence Guetté	0.1%	—	$634K	active
Juan Branco	0.1%	—	$144K	active
Gérald Darmanin	0.1%	—	$353K	active
Michel Barnier	0.1%	—	$585K	active
Mathilde Panot	0.1%	—	$597K	active
Ségolène Royal	0.1%	—	$396K	active
François Bayrou	0.1%	—	$614K	active
François Asselineau	0.1%	—	$544K	active
Yaël Braun-Pivet	0.1%	—	$574K	active
Élisabeth Borne	0.1%	—	$593K	active
Clémentine Autain	0.1%	—	$597K	active
Manuel Bompard	0.1%	—	$575K	active
Carole Delga	0.1%	—	$601K	active
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	0.1%	—	$623K	active
Fabien Roussel	0.1%	—	$512K	active
Valérie Pécresse	0.1%	—	$598K	active
Bernard Cazeneuve	0.1%	—	$279K	active
Yannick Jadot	0.1%	—	$527K	active
Marion Maréchal	0.1%	—	$492K	active
Lucie Castets	0.1%	—	$529K	active

Probability sum: 98.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC