Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
3%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $759Closes 22 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 94% probability for this outcome, a +13.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
94%Recent probability movement (up 13.1pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
94%
24h Change
+13.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 15.3pp, from 81% to 96%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
81%
7 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
81%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
81%
7 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
81%
7 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
96%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
94%
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 13.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 93.9% | +13.1pp | $11K | active |
| Petar Musa | 3.2% | -0.05pp | $4K | active |
| Sam Surridge | 0.6% | +0.2pp | $2K | active |
| Milan Iloski | 0.4% | -0.9pp | $2K | active |
| Prince-Osei Owusu | 0.2% | +0.1pp | $3K | active |
| Brian White | 1.2% | -0.2pp | $3K | active |
| Dejan Joveljić | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Kévin Denkey | 1.4% | -0.5pp | $3K | active |
| Martín Ojeda | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | 0.1% | — | $5K | active |
| Tadeo Allende | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Germán Berterame | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Albert Rusnák | 0.1% | — | $5K | active |
| Tai Baribo | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Hugo Cuypers | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Denis Bouanga | 0.3% | -0.4pp | $3K | active |
| Evander | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Hany Mukhtar | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Anders Dreyer | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Alonso Martínez | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Louis Munteanu | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Danny Musovski | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Cheikh Sabaly | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Philip Zinckernagel | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Idan Toklomati | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Djordje Mihailovic | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Diego Rossi | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Marco Pašalić | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
Probability sum: 102.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Golden Boot. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 22 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC