Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
91%
Limited history-4.0pp
24h activity $30KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 67% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
67%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
67%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
2
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Not enough price history yet to show when the move happened.
65%
8 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC
67%
8 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
History is sparse, so this timeline should be treated as directional context only.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 90.5% | -4.0pp | $28K | active |
| October 15 | 76.0% | -0.5pp | $3K | active |
| October 10 | 24.5% | -33.0pp | $3K | active |
| November 30 | 98.8% | +1.3pp | $6K | active |
| October 23 | 86.0% | — | $837 | active |
| October 14 | 66.5% | — | $766 | active |
| October 16 | 86.0% | — | $1K | active |
| October 9 | 17.5% | — | $79 | active |
| October 12 | 49.0% | — | $82 | active |
| October 13 | 48.5% | — | $374 | active |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -24.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 5 | 0.0% | -3.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 2 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC