Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 85% probability for this outcome, a -2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
85%Probability is barely changed (down 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
85%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 27.0pp, from 87% to 60%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
89%
7 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
89%
7 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
89%
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
89%
7 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC
60%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
85%
11 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 84.5% | -2.0pp | $52K | active |
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 16.3% | +3.4pp | $67K | active |
| Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) | 0.1% | — | $50K | active |
Probability sum: 100.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://db.cec.gov.tw/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 29 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC