Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
77%
Limited history
24h activity $20KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 61% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
61%Recent probability movement (down 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
61%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
15
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 61% to 61%, gradually rather than in one jump.
61%
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
61%
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
61%
11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
61%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
61%
11 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
61%
11 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 76.5% | — | $26K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 0.6% | — | $65K | active |
| November 15, 2026 | 4.5% | -4.0pp | $13K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 60.5% | -1.5pp | $15K | active |
| October 15, 2026 | 0.1% | — | $76K | active |
| December 15, 2026 | 73.5% | — | $32K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 15, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC