Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
1%
Limited history
24h activity $7KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 77% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
77%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
77%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
15
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.0pp, from 75% to 77%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC.
75%
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
75%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
77%
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
77%
11 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 76.5% | — | $26K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 0.6% | — | $65K | active |
| November 15, 2026 | 4.5% | -4.0pp | $13K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 60.5% | -1.5pp | $15K | active |
| October 15, 2026 | 0.1% | — | $76K | active |
| December 15, 2026 | 73.5% | — | $32K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 15, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC