Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
11%
Limited history+0.05pp
24h activity $814Closes 1 Nov 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
4%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $75K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 11.2% | +0.05pp | $74K | active |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.5% | +0.8pp | $49K | active |
| Athletics | 0.3% | — | $56K | active |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1.6% | — | $49K | active |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.1% | — | $59K | active |
| Texas Rangers | 3.5% | -0.3pp | $71K | active |
| Chicago White Sox | 8.9% | +1.2pp | $72K | active |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.1% | — | $57K | active |
| Houston Astros | 11.1% | +0.4pp | $69K | active |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3.7% | -0.05pp | $75K | active |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 21.9% | — | $69K | active |
| Minnesota Twins | 1.1% | -0.5pp | $48K | active |
| Detroit Tigers | 4.5% | +0.5pp | $68K | active |
| New York Yankees | 25.5% | — | $93K | active |
| Seattle Mariners | 4.3% | -0.2pp | $67K | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
11%
3%
0%
2%
0%
4%