Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
13%
Limited history-3.4pp
24h activity $200Closes 1 Jul 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 37% probability for this outcome, a -10.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
37%Recent probability movement (down 10.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
37%
24h Change
-10.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 6.0pp, from 47% to 53%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC.
45%
8 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
45%
8 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
45%
8 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
45%
8 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
53%
9 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
37%
12 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebeca Grynspan | 37.0% | -10.5pp | $22K | active |
| Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | 12.7% | -3.4pp | $2K | active |
| María Fernanda Espinosa | 9.1% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Rafael Grossi | 17.2% | -4.8pp | $11K | active |
| Macky Sall | 2.7% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Michelle Bachelet | 1.4% | — | $11K | active |
| Olara Otunnu | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Ivonne de Baki | 0.6% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: 81.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC