Politics

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 13% probability for this outcome, a -8.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

13%

Market data currentMeaningful move-8.3pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 8.3pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

13%

24h Change

-8.3pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 13.1%
No implied probability: 87.0%
Liquidity: $41K
24h activity: $2K
Lifetime volume: $470K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 16 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 8.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Sorin Grindeanu	13.1%	-8.3pp	$41K	active
George Simion	2.7%	+2.0pp	$18K	active
Vasile Dîncu	0.1%	—	$22K	active
Dominic Fritz	0.3%	+0.1pp	$17K	active
Ilie Bolojan	3.3%	-0.9pp	$23K	active
Cătălin Predoiu	0.3%	—	$28K	active
Alexandru Nazare	52.5%	+2.0pp	$35K	active
Adrian Veștea	0.1%	—	$30K	active
Radu Burnete	1.3%	-0.7pp	$18K	active
Victor Ponta	0.6%	—	$20K	active
Eugen Tomac	4.5%	-0.3pp	$27K	active
Cătălin Drulă	0.1%	—	$31K	active
Delia Velculescu	0.1%	—	$19K	active
Hunor Kelemen	0.3%	—	$26K	active
Elena Lasconi	0.1%	—	$21K	active
Dan Motreanu	0.3%	—	$21K	active
Șerban Matei	0.1%	—	$19K	active
Dragoș Pîslaru	0.3%	—	$21K	active
Ionuț Dumitru	0.1%	—	$18K	active
Anca Dragu	0.2%	-0.05pp	$19K	active
Sebastian Burduja	0.1%	—	$20K	active
Dacian Cioloș	0.1%	—	$24K	active
Traian Basescu	0.4%	—	$20K	active
Lucian Croitoru	0.7%	-0.1pp	$21K	active
Calin Georgescu	0.1%	—	$24K	active
Nicolae Ciucă	0.1%	—	$19K	active
Marcel Ciolacu	0.1%	—	$29K	active
Emil Boc	0.1%	—	$21K	active
Lucian Isar	0.1%	—	$22K	active
Mircea Geoană	0.1%	—	$24K	active
Alexandru Rafila	0.1%	—	$19K	active
Alexandru Rogobete	0.1%	—	$21K	active
Mugur Isărescu	0.1%	—	$27K	active
Ciprian Ciucu	0.1%	—	$20K	active
Raluca Turcan	0.1%	—	$17K	active
Siegfried Mureșan	1.6%	+0.1pp	$15K	active

Probability sum: 85.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC