Politics

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.6%
No implied probability: 99.5%
Liquidity: $1.8M
24h activity: $3K
Lifetime volume: $32.2M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 14 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	+0.1pp	$2.8M	active
Gavin Newsom	12.3%	-0.1pp	$366K	active
Kamala Harris	8.3%	+0.5pp	$354K	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	-0.1pp	$943K	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$388K	active
Cory Booker	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	+0.05pp	$442K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	17.9%	-0.4pp	$359K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	—	$331K	active
Hunter Biden	0.5%	—	$1.2M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	—	$802K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.4%	+0.1pp	$305K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	+0.05pp	$192K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.6%	—	$678K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.5M	active
Jon Ossoff	15.8%	-0.1pp	$303K	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$886K	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Barack Obama	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Mark Cuban	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Wes Moore	1.6%	—	$331K	active
Andy Beshear	2.6%	—	$577K	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	—	$1.8M	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.1%	—	$833K	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.3%	-0.05pp	$328K	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Ro Khanna	1.6%	—	$218K	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
MrBeast	0.1%	-0.05pp	$2.6M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
James Talarico	2.4%	—	$233K	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$435K	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active

Probability sum: 88.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC