Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Limited history
24h activity $29KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
38
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 24.8pp, from 25% to 0%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
25%
7 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
0%
7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
0%
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
8 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McEntee | 0.1% | +0.1pp | $646K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | — | $788K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | — | $628K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | — | $752K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $296K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $2.3M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Marco Rubio | 15.1% | -0.1pp | $358K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 48.5% | -0.1pp | $420K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.8% | — | $343K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | +0.05pp | $613K | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | — | $374K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.1% | — | $268K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — | $375K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.3% | — | $303K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.3% | — | $816K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $699K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $990K | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $878K | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
Probability sum: 83.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC