Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East?
19%
Limited history-5.5pp
24h activity $220Closes 18 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 75% probability for this outcome, a +7.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
75%Recent probability movement (up 7.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
75%
24h Change
+7.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 9.0pp, from 66% to 75%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
68%
23 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
69%
23 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
69%
23 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
69%
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
75%
27 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
75%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 75.0% | +7.5pp | $10K | active |
| New England Patriots | 19.0% | -5.5pp | $7K | active |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.9% | -0.1pp | $5K | active |
| New York Jets | 5.0% | +1.5pp | $6K | active |
Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC East division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC