Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
85%
Limited history+24.5pp
24h activity $6KCloses 1 Jul 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -2.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 2.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-2.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.3pp, from 5% to 3%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
5%
7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
7 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
5%
7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
5%
7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
3%
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
3%
11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 84.5% | +24.5pp | $26K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 60.5% | +5.0pp | $32K | active |
| Bally Bagayoko | 3.2% | -3.8pp | $14K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 4.5% | -6.3pp | $15K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93.8% | -0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Jérôme Guedj | 3.0% | -2.5pp | $13K | active |
| François Asselineau | 23.0% | +3.0pp | $792 | active |
| François Hollande | 30.0% | -4.0pp | $25K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 91.5% | +1.0pp | $20K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 22.0% | +1.5pp | $13K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 32.0% | +3.0pp | $25K | active |
| François Ruffin | 24.0% | — | $13K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 22.5% | -0.5pp | $13K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 89.0% | -1.5pp | $15K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 3.0% | -0.5pp | $16K | active |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.0% | -0.5pp | $14K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 6.7% | -0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 78.5% | +3.0pp | $290 | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 9.3% | -1.1pp | $14K | active |
| David Lisnard | 73.5% | — | $29K | active |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 3.3% | -0.3pp | $16K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.8% | -0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 4.0% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 4.8% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 10.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 30.5% | — | $29K | active |
| Juan Branco | 8.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Teddy Riner | 4.8% | — | $16K | active |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 87.5% | -0.5pp | $14K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 11.5% | — | $15K | active |
| François Bayrou | 4.8% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Carole Delga | 5.3% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 80.0% | -1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Philippe de Villiers | 5.2% | +0.2pp | $14K | active |
| Jean Castex | 5.3% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 6.3% | -0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 68.5% | +3.0pp | $330 | active |
| Delphine Batho | 8.8% | -0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 6.9% | — | $14K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 1.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6.0% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4.2% | +0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Manuel Valls | 4.6% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Apr 2027, 23:59 UTC