Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Martín Ojeda win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
0%
Limited history+0.05pp
24h activity $1KCloses 22 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 2% to 2%, gradually rather than in one jump.
2%
5 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
2%
5 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
2%
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
2%
6 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
2%
8 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
2%
10 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $781 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Ojeda | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $2K | active |
| Evander | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 80.8% | — | $10K | active |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Tadeo Allende | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Germán Berterame | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Albert Rusnák | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Tai Baribo | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Prince-Osei Owusu | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Petar Musa | 3.3% | +0.3pp | $1K | active |
| Brian White | 1.6% | -0.1pp | $781 | active |
| Hugo Cuypers | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Sam Surridge | 0.5% | — | $931 | active |
| Milan Iloski | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $848 | active |
| Denis Bouanga | 1.4% | +1.3pp | $2K | active |
| Dejan Joveljić | 0.1% | -1.4pp | $774 | active |
| Kévin Denkey | 1.9% | — | $730 | active |
| Hany Mukhtar | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Anders Dreyer | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Alonso Martínez | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Louis Munteanu | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Danny Musovski | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Cheikh Sabaly | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Philip Zinckernagel | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Idan Toklomati | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Djordje Mihailovic | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Diego Rossi | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Marco Pašalić | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 92.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Golden Boot. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC