Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $723KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 42% probability for this outcome, a +5.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
42%Probability moved up 5.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
42%
24h Change
+5.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 3.0pp, from 40% to 43%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
43%
28 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
43%
28 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
43%
28 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
43%
28 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
43%
2 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
42%
2 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 5.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $734K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 41.5% | +5.0pp | $641K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 58.0% | -4.9pp | $429K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1% | — | $644K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $410K | active |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | — | $706K | active |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1% | — | $792K | active |
| Augusto Cury | 0.1% | — | $392K | active |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.1% | — | $735K | active |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $852K | active |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
Probability sum: 100.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC