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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a +0.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Recent probability movement (up 0.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
4%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.4pp from 5% to 4%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
4%
1 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
4%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC