Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
46%
Limited history-1.6pp
24h activity $218Closes 22 Nov 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
13%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
13%
24h Change
-10.7pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.7pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $18. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 46.0% | -1.6pp | $3K | active |
| Dejan Joveljić | 3.3% | -17.5pp | $716 | active |
| Petar Musa | 12.6% | -10.7pp | $1K | active |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | 1.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Tadeo Allende | 0.3% | — | $881 | active |
| Germán Berterame | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $762 | active |
| Albert Rusnák | 0.6% | — | $698 | active |
| Tai Baribo | 6.8% | +1.1pp | $905 | active |
| Prince-Osei Owusu | 4.0% | -10.8pp | $840 | active |
| Hugo Cuypers | 2.2% | -2.4pp | $1K | active |
| Denis Bouanga | 4.6% | -9.0pp | $685 | active |
| Brian White | 1.9% | -0.05pp | $630 | active |
| Sam Surridge | 11.7% | -7.1pp | $1K | active |
| Evander | 4.8% | +0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Kévin Denkey | 4.8% | -13.8pp | $717 | active |
| Alonso Martínez | 0.1% | — | $762 | active |
| Martín Ojeda | 2.8% | — | $555 | active |
| Danny Musovski | 0.2% | — | $727 | active |
| Cheikh Sabaly | 0.6% | -14.3pp | $686 | active |
| Djordje Mihailovic | 0.1% | — | $717 | active |
| Anders Dreyer | 3.4% | -15.3pp | $719 | active |
| Diego Rossi | 0.1% | — | $581 | active |
| Hany Mukhtar | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $564 | active |
| Marco Pašalić | 0.1% | — | $677 | active |
| Idan Toklomati | 3.3% | -14.9pp | $916 | active |
| Milan Iloski | 3.9% | — | $802 | active |
| Philip Zinckernagel | 0.1% | — | $515 | active |
| Louis Munteanu | 0.1% | — | $670 | active |
Probability sum: 121.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Golden Boot. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 22 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
46%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%