Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
33%
Limited history+21.3pp
24h activity $27KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a +8.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
8%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
8%
24h Change
+8.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.0pp, from 0% to 6%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
0%
13 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
13 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
0%
13 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
0%
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
6%
17 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
8%
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 8.3pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is $8K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siegfried Mureșan | 33.0% | +21.3pp | $58K | active |
| Alexandru Nazare | 11.7% | -41.0pp | $42K | active |
| Sorin Grindeanu | 19.8% | +5.3pp | $37K | active |
| Alexandru Rogobete | 8.4% | +8.3pp | $9K | active |
| Ilie Bolojan | 3.9% | -0.8pp | $40K | active |
| Eugen Tomac | 1.6% | -3.5pp | $44K | active |
| Traian Basescu | 1.1% | +0.7pp | $38K | active |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 0.8% | +0.6pp | $40K | active |
| Victor Ponta | 0.7% | — | $21K | active |
| Calin Georgescu | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $26K | active |
| Radu Burnete | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $30K | active |
| Adrian Veștea | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Dominic Fritz | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $23K | active |
| George Simion | 2.3% | -0.5pp | $23K | active |
| Anca Dragu | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $22K | active |
| Raluca Turcan | 0.1% | — | $17K | active |
| Cătălin Drulă | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| Mugur Isărescu | 0.1% | — | $28K | active |
| Ciprian Ciucu | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Vasile Dîncu | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Dragoș Pîslaru | 0.3% | — | $21K | active |
| Lucian Croitoru | 0.3% | -0.5pp | $33K | active |
| Emil Boc | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Mircea Geoană | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $32K | active |
| Dan Motreanu | 0.3% | — | $21K | active |
| Delia Velculescu | 0.1% | — | $20K | active |
| Lucian Isar | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
| Alexandru Rafila | 0.1% | — | $20K | active |
| Sebastian Burduja | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $18K | active |
| Hunor Kelemen | 0.3% | — | $27K | active |
| Șerban Matei | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Ionuț Dumitru | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| Dacian Cioloș | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $32K | active |
| Elena Lasconi | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
Probability sum: 88.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC