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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 27% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
27%Recent probability movement (up 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
27%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.5pp, from 25% to 27%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC.
29%
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
30%
7 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC
30%
7 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
30%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
27%
11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
27%
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC