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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| 40+ | 0.1% | -2.0pp | $58K | resolved |
| 32–35 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| 36–39 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $96K | resolved |
| 20–23 | 100.0% | +5.7pp | $93K | resolved |
| 24–27 | 0.0% | -2.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| 28–31 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)